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Study: One in Five Americans Secular in Twenty Years

Sunday September 27, 2009   ~   7 Comments

The Pew Forum provides a helpful service and aggregates religion news stories. They recently pointed to story by the Religion News Service covering research done by a team from Trinity College. It is part of the American Religion Identification Survey, mentioned earlier here at the blog, that provided a "Profile of the No Religion Population." The study essentially showed that people who profess no religion ("Nones") are similar to the general public in marital status, education, racial and ethnic makeup and income, and are increasing in number. According to the study, because this "silent minority" is so similar to the general public it's growth in the 90's went largely unnoticed.

"The number of American adults who do not identify with a particular religion is growing and may comprise more than 20 percent of the population in two decades.... According to the study, it is possible that one in five Americans will put themselves in the 'None' category by 2030." Now, keep in mind that "it is possible" does not mean"it will be," but the trend is still important to consider.

Don't misunderstand the label. "Nones" are not necessarily atheists, rather they simply do not affirm a particular religious category. In fact, "most Nones would not consider themselves atheists. More than 50 percent believe in either a higher being or a personal God, while only 7 percent are self-proclaimed atheists. One in three say they 'definitely' believe that humans developed from earlier species of animals."

Politically, many Nones will not identify with a particular party. Over 40 percent are independents; 34 percent are Democrats; and 13 percent Republican.

The most notable difference between Nones and the religious population is the gender gap. Only 12 percent of American women are Nones while 19 percent of American men claim no religion. According to the study, women who grew up in non-religious homes are less likely to stay non-religious. Women are also less likely to switch out of religion. (source)


You can download the the actual report by Trinity College here. Check it out and then come back to the blog to to discuss. What does a growing percentage of "Nones" mean for the church? Will people not identifying with a particular religion make connecting between individuals and the gospel more difficult, or easier?

I have tended to think that the fact the large majority consider themselves Christians actually is unhelpful in some ways-- it confuses what a Christian really is.

What do you think?

Posted on September 27, 2009 at 6:05 PM   ~   7 Comments

Tagged with: nones, religion, research

7 Comments

Actually I have another question... or two. I wonder how many of them have had a significant church / religious / faith experience in the past? Is it a further move towards secularism; ie. younger poeple getting older and having little or no faith experiences or is it the "de-churched" (a phrase I commonly use to refer to people who have had some church in their past) moving father away from organized religion of all types?

Ed,

I think we have enough trouble within Southern Baptist Churches, figuring out how many of the people who have joined our churches are actually believers, themselves. I don't think we'll EVER get a handle on the un- or de-churched, as we have to go largely by what they say in determining what they are.

We're not even sure of our own membership, and there we have the benefit of what they say, AND what they do. And we still don't know. And I might add we're afraid to guess, as a logical estimate might be tremendously discouraging.

Ah well. Such is life.

I believe it's further proof that we need to learn what it means to be disciples and then to actually "make" them as we're commanded by Christ. The church will look different in the days ahead just as it looks different today than it did in the first century. If pews and steeples aren't turning heads then perhaps we should reconsider sofas and coffee tables!

I think a large component of this is going to be people who were nominal Christians (or nominal Jews, Hindus, et cetera) no longer feeling the social pressure to put a religious tag on themselves when their only religious experiences might have involved going to church for Christmas or Easter when they were young. In other words I do not know the extent to which the Nones are growing (and they probably are) versus the face that more of them are prepared to acknowledge that they have been Nones all along (also probably true).

Why do we talk numbers so much? Do we feel a need to quantify God's work? Did Jesus feel discouraged when many people left Him after the teachings became too hard for them to take? I feel we would be more faithful to God by sharing the Good News by whatever cultural relevant means we need (books, video, audio) but through real loving relationships. Many times I feel that the Churches are trying to sell timeshares or insurance rather than having real concern for the lost.

A couple of thoughts.

I think that this trend reflects the growing ease not to be anything.

I get the sense that some people when asked a poll question will answer according to what the social norm is because they do not want to be seen as outsiders.

Here is a ridiculous example to make the point: Say a polling company asks someone whether or not he likes black people. Deep done he may not, but will answer yes because of the social expectation not to be racial.

When it comes to religion preferences, I think more people are being more honest because the social expectation to be a Christian isn't as strong as in the past.

As far as reaching people for Christ, the church needs to become more sophisticated in our approaches. I think Tim Keller is on to something when he talks about how to introduce Christ to different people groups. It's no longer a one size fits all with the Four Spiritual Laws or the like.

Thanks for your post Ed.

Honestly the reason the nones are on the rise is that the church is again slow to adapt to scientifically proven reality. The truth of evolution is apparent to the educated and religious resistance to it is a huge turnoff for people. People want a religion that is strong and doesn't have to deny reality. The faster modern religions incorporate modern scientific reality the sooner they will stop bleeding adherents, many people still fundamentally want to believe.

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