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Monday January 30, 2012 ~ 14 Comments
I write a column in each issue of Facts and Trends magazine. In the most recent issue, I shared some observations of big issues in churches today. I thought I'd share it here at the blog.
Decline Everywhere you look you will hear tales of the decline of the American church. Some doomsayers are saying evangelicalism will die in a decade. This type of Chicken Little-ism is unnecessary. The truth is that, yes, there is decline among self-identified Christians in America. According to the latest American Religious Identification Survey (ARIS), the number of self-professing Christians is down 11 percent over two decades. But, that same ARIS study also revealed an actual rise in the number of evangelicals. There are concerns - and I would say that we are increasingly losing our "home field advantage" in our culture. Yet, Christianity is not in collapse. It is, however, declining in influence and increasingly being marginalized in culture. To address the trend, we need a renewed vision and passion for God's mission in our churches. Dropouts Like the decline trend, the dropout trend is both troubling and troublesome. It is troubling because it is an ongoing trend. Young adults are dropping out of the church at a disturbing rate after graduating high school. But, again, although it is troublesome, the data is not as scary as some proclaim. Our LifeWay Research data has placed the dropout number at 70 percent. But this number is not as definite as it sounds. It is not as if 70 percent of all young adults vanish in some kind of reverse rapture. More specifically, 70 percent of young adults who were active for at least one year in high school drop out for at least one year between 18-22. Half of those who leave stay gone. But then, half of those who leave return. Among evangelical churches, the number of dropouts is also lower. To address the trend, we need parents and churches to get serious about equipping students to live their faith. Discipleship Or lack thereof. The elephant in the Christian church today is that we are not seeing robust disciple-making taking place. You are more likely to find evangelicals affirming that there is more than one way to get to heaven today than you were 15 or 20 years ago. Why? We've done great at getting them in the door and occupying their spiritual appetites, but we've done terrible at actually growing them up and grounding them in the faith. Many churches are now rediscovering ways to push more depth from the Sunday morning stage, better ways to assimilate the crowds into small groups and discipling relationships, more organic ways to nurture spiritual formation, and stronger ways to create missional expansion in their communities and around the world. To address the trend, we need to get serious about teaching believers who they are in Christ and how they are to live that out. Trends matter--we look at them to see where we are and they help us to consider what we should be doing. With God's grace and discerning leadership, we can address these trends in biblically driven ways as we engage the future together.
Note: This article originally appeared in LifeWay's Facts and Trends magazine. Charles Long, one of our in-house graphic designers, read the line about the elephant the church and came up with the graphic. We have some extremely talented and creative people here at LifeWay. Posted on January 30, 2012 at 11:00 AM ~ 14 Comments Tagged with: 14 CommentsComment PolicyComments are welcome on discussion posts. Comments are not moderated but do require a keyword to avoid spam. If this is your first time commenting, please review the comment policy. Leave a comment |

I am often asked about the future of the church and, as much as I wish I knew the future, I don't. What I do have, however, is an accumulation of research, access to some of the best ministry thinkers and leaders across a spectrum of denominations and movements, and a critical eye on the ebb and flow of church culture. So, in looking at the trends in our churches, here are three I believe are worth taking note of today.



































How true this article is. I am a 28 year old Media Director at a church in Florida. I have come to the realization that are churches are not doing anything for the young adults. We do so well at the children and youth age and again great at the married with children and senior adults. Its almost if we forget college students and young adults (single and married). These years I feel are pivotal in the life of a Christian young adult as they are year where freedom is expressed and people go experience new things. If you do not ground them in good discipleship like its said in the article our church will more usually than not lose those people.
Praise the Lord - I am in a church that is growing and discipling - so thankful...good post.
I came to your blog from the church relevant site top 200 list. They have created a tremendous forum for finding new blogs that impact people.
I hope my blog can be an encouragement to you also.
I write it for encouragement and motivation daily.
http://i-never-fail.blogspot.com
Thanks for sharing. Looking forward to watching the connections grow!
Thanks Ed. It is amazing to me how many folks think they are "going deep" all they while there is no substantive change; little outreach to outsiders, and an "us four and no more mentality." How sad but we can have "bible study" without discipleship. We are experts at it. May our Lord give us a new vision. I thank you for your help in this arena. MP
Obviously a lot of tension in how and why we disciple Ed. That is to how we tailor discipleship to fit people's ages and likes.
Josh, I see your point and at our church I am actively pursuing the college kids next door to us. But I often debate whether I need to create something special for them.
A disciple's call is to forget the world, let the dead bury the dead, and follow Jesus. Maybe somewhere in what we are looking for is a way to disciple across generational boundaries. It probably helps us to be mission focus because that tends to bridge these gaps.
It could be that the evangelical Christianity has changed in the last 40 years and this is what is allowing the elephant to roam free in the church.
Could another reason be the increased secularization of society in the USA generally? The Wall St. Journal published a survey a week ago on this subject.
I observe anecdotally that churches are not having trouble attracting people. We have big "block parties" etc. and tons of people come to them -- especially if we have door prizes like bikes for kids, X-Boxes for teenagers, and HDTVs for adults.
There will be some "decisions for Christ" at these events. People walk down the aisle and check a box but then you never see them again even if you follow up on them.
In the 1980s, I'd notice that for some months in any given year more people would leave via the backdoor than came in the front door of a church. Now I'd say the more significant negative demographic trend is that people make a brief "flyby" at church [maybe lasting a month or so] and then split. I think this is consistent with the short "attention span" of society generally.
These people are not leaving because they are “mad”; they are leaving because the novelty has worn off. They are off on their next adventure. One aspect of Christianity that seems to be in sync with this observation is the popularity of “Christian biker clubs”. This is one thing that has enough biting power to actually involve people.
What’s next “Christian Corvette Clubs”? I have a 2008 Corvette and enjoy tooling around in it. But I don’t think stuff like this is a proxy for Christianity. It seems shallow to me to have a “Christian affinity group” centered around a four-wheeled idol that costs north of $50,000.
We have high drop-out rates in school. We have increasing divorce rates. There is "less commitment" generally across many aspects of society. I don't think the church is immune to this.
I agree with Michael Palmer above. We strain gnats while the world around us remains thirsty. We argue about many things while our brothers and sisters around the globe are grateful just to have a Bible in their own language.
I'm not saying doctrinal issues are trivial, for they certainly are not. It's just that too many "Christians" feel more comfortable around the debate table rather than in the marketplaces talking to people about how to get saved.
I loved your article and do agree, I find this preoccupation with leadership conferences overdone as most people are followers not leaders, we put untold pressure on our people to lead and they hate the pressure they just want to be great disciples and love God, the corporate American style church is costing the church around the world the moral high ground and we are becoming more irrelevant, YOU DO NOT HAVE TO BE A CHRISTIAN to love life in this world we have created says the youth, what a shame, but it is not to late, we are conferences to death, let the church once again be the church
It seems the modern church has done a good job getting decisions made, getting volunteers serving, and getting groups (kinda) attended, but the overall goal of making a disciple-making disciple alludes us. Perhaps because it's not an easy number to count and tweet, perhaps because it's really darn hard!
Regardless, just told his disciples to MAKE disciples. He didn't ask for decisions, but disciples, and seems to imply there's an ability for us to make them.
How we move decisions to declarations to demonstrations to duplications should vary from context to context, but the goal must be the same.
Thank you, Ed, for continuing to put this issue on the forefront. We must constant be confronted with this great commission from Jesus and evaluate our churches and personal lives by it.
Thanks for the post Ed!
I'm interested to hear more about finding organic ways to nurture spiritual formation.
Trends matter--we look at them to see where we are and they help us to consider what we should be doing.
LOVE THIS!
btw, ed :: trying to find an email for you. how does one get in touch with the infamous ED STETZER??
mkimpan@richwoods.org
Hmmm. Let me do a quick review of the "good news". People openly identifying themselves as Christians are down by 11%, "only" 70% of youth are dropping out of Church ("only 70% of the Titanic is currently underwater")and we aren't making the disciples necessary to carry us into the next generation (i.e., no lifeboats). So, Captain Smith, is it too early to send out the distress call? :) As for me and my house, we're going to pass on tickets for this voyage. House Church, anyone?
I wanted to comment on this thought: "There are concerns - and I would say that we are increasingly losing our "home field advantage" in our culture. Yet, Christianity is not in collapse. It is, however, declining in influence and increasingly being marginalized in culture."
While I generally love your articles and overall line of thinking, I feel that that statement reflects a perspective that is bound by a Bible Belt mentality, which is all too prevalent in the SBC.
A couple thoughts:
1) Most large Northern cities have *never* been sympathetic to Evangelical values, let alone Baptist values. Cultural support is virtually nonexistent in places like Boston, New York, Detroit, Minneapolis, Chicago, Seattle, etc. This is urban reality. When you say "we" I have to wonder who you are talking about.
2) Is "home field advantage" even a good thing? Does it not work against the very discipleship we're trying to advocate? Does it not blur the line between the living and the dead, and make even the stoutest saints vulnerable to apathy and complacency?
It seems to be the places in the world where opposition to the gospel is common that the church is the most vibrant. That is an important lens to look through in any attempt to understand where the American Evangelical church really is.
Thanks, Steve,
I am actually not a southerner, having been raised outside in NYC and planting in Buffalo and Erie, PA. I've lived most of my life outside the South. So, when I talk about contexts, I mean the whole country, including the urban realities where I have lived and planted.
Second, the phrase "lost our home field advantage" was actually derived from Lesslie Newbigin, who was speaking of England upon his return from missionary service in India.
Third, this is not an SBC-issues blog and is read by people all different denominations. Please keep that in mind and it will help clarify that the "we" I refer to is not Baptists in the South.
Finally, I was not advocating for the "home field advantage," but rather pointing our that we don't have it.
Thanks for commenting and for your ministry there in Chicago.
God bless,
Ed
Sorry if that came off as overly critical, Ed. After reading it again I saw that it appeared that way, and that wasn't really my intention.
I did assume that since your article was in Facts & Trends that it was more SBC-specific (and therefore carrying with it some of the Southern baggage), so thanks for the clarification. Assuming is never a good idea :o)
In many ways, we (Evangelicals) face a world much like our first century predecessors, and I think that while that is a big adjustment, it ultimately is a good thing.
I grew up in inner-city Chicago, but I did live in the South for 3 years in my early adolescence - Tennessee and Kentucky. There is much to love in the South, but it didn't take long for me to see the great disadvantage that a "Christian" culture creates (which is by no means limited to the South). Competing in the marketplace of ideas has the potential to bring out the best in Christianity.
Thanks for the response!